Many times we are in doubt as to play or fold a hand in poker. Through a simple calculation, it is possible to estimate their chances of winning.
The calculation is based on counting the cards in the deck, and calculate the chances of them coming up until river. To calculate the percentage of chances, we will use the rule of “4 and 2”. This value is not accurate, because we are not considering the chances of one of his outs are with one of his opponents
If the turn is not shown yet, you multiply your outs by 4. If the turn has been shown, but not the river, you multiply your outs by 2. The result is the estimated percentage of you complete your hand.
The calculations made have to be accurate with no room for mistakes based on the turn because poker is not your regular bandarq online, where the points and numbers can be taken casually but simply keeping all the 2s and 4s in an orderly space where folding the hand is a must.
(Note: c = clubs, d = diamonds, h = hearts = s = spades):
- You have: 4c 5c.
- In the flop: 3c 6h Qs
In this case you have an OESD (open ended straight draw). If the flop comes up to a 2 or 7 (outs), you will have a strong hand (straight). In the deck, we have 2c, 2d, 2h, 2s, 7c, 7d, 7h, and 7s, total of eight outs.
- In the turn, 4 x 8 outs = 32% of chance to complete your hand.
- In the river, 2 x 8 outs = 16% of chances to compelte your hand.
- You have: 4c 5c.
- In the flop: 3c 6c Kd
In this case we have a hand with more chances to form, because besides the OESD, we have a flush draw, where any card of clubs will give you a flush. In the dack, we have all card of other clubs (A, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K) and the cards to complete your straight (2d, 2h, 2s, 7d, 7h, 7s). Note that the cards of clubs have already been counted for the flush draw, so we deduct the OESD, total of 15 outs.
- In the turn, 4 x 15 outs = 60% of chance to complete your hand.
- In the river, 2 x 15 outs = 30% of chance to complete your hand.
Important to consider the possibility of profit with their chances of winning. If there is small pot, we play the hand with the best chance of winning. If the chances are small, sometimes you need to fold, because it will not be profitable.
With these concepts you will get good returns in the long term. Enjoy!